UK General Election one year after the BREXIT referendum

The prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May surprised the public with the announcement of holding General Election on the 8th of June. She had repeatedly assured she was against early elections. One motivation was that she wanted to strengthen her position and hoped to gain bargaining power in the complicated BREXIT talks with the EU-27 ahead, as polling data for her Conservative Party looked good in April. The Labour Party under leadership of Jeremy Corbyn had been falling in the polls for several year years but since the announcement of the early election recovered significantly. The Lib Dems didn't show strong signs of recovery and the UKIP was underperforming the party's polling numbers compared to previous years and the polling numbers were decreasing even further. The voting method in the United Kingdom for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system at the constituencies level. Therefore, the percentage presented in the poll of polls is just an approximation. The strategy by Theresa May backfired and in the end, her party even lost the majority after all with a so-called hung parliament.

Poll of Polls

Conservative and Unionist Party
Candidate: Theresa May
EP Affiliation: ECR
Labour Party
Candidate: Jeremy Corbyn
EP Affiliation: S&D
Liberal Democrats
Candidate: Vince Cable
EP Affiliation: ALDE
Scottish National Party
Candidate: Nicola Sturgeon
EP Affiliation: Greens/EFA
UK Independence Party
Candidate: Gerard Batten
EP Affiliation: EFDD
The Green Party of England and Wales
Candidate: (England/Wales) Caroline Lucas & Jonathan Bartley
EP Affiliation: Greens/EFA

Previous election results

Date
Election
08. Jun '17
General Election 2017
43.5 % 41 % 7.6 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.7 %
Date
Election
07. May '15
General Election 2015
37.8 % 31.2 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 4.9 % 3.8 %

The most recent polls

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
12. Jun '18
YouGov
42 % 39 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1638
± 2.4 %
10. Jun '18
ICM
42 % 40 % 8 % 3 % 3 % 3 % 2021
± 2.2 %
08. Jun '18
BMG
41 % 38 % 11 % 4 % 2 % - NA
-
07. Jun '18
Opinium
42 % 40 % 7 % 6 % 2 % 2 % 2005
± 2.2 %
05. Jun '18
YouGov
44 % 37 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 3 % 1619
± 2.4 %
04. Jun '18
Survation
41 % 40 % 9 % 3 % 2 % 2 % 2012
± 2.1 %
29. May '18
ICM
43 % 40 % 8 % 3 % 3 % 2 % 2002
± 2.2 %
29. May '18
YouGov
42 % 39 % 9 % 5 % 3 % 2 % 1670
± 2.4 %
22. May '18
Ipsos MORI
40 % 40 % 7 % 5 % 5 % 2 % 1015
± 3 %
21. May '18
YouGov
42 % 38 % 9 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1660
± 2.4 %
17. May '18
ComRes
41 % 41 % 7 % 3 % 3 % 3 % 2045
± 2.1 %
16. May '18
Opinium
43 % 39 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 3 % 2009
± 2.2 %

About

pollofpolls.eu is a private initiative by three data nerds, who want to offer aggregated polling data for upcoming elections in Europe. Slick design, up to date and comprehensive for anyone looking for the most recent polling numbers and their aggregation. We are not fivethirtyeight yet, but everyone must start at the bottom. We are based in Vienna, Austria, in the middle of the EU with its many difficulties and political disputes going on, and by tracking the political polls we try to give you one option to keep pace with the public mood. We are very aware that polls are far from showing the actual full picture, and we, therefore, see them rather as a very good compass, especially when aggregated. Last but not least, we invest our free time and apologize for possibly occurring bugs or errors.

Contact: Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for updates and more. We also look forward to your feedback, questions or funny gifs, which you can send us via Email contact@pollofpolls.eu.

Disclosure: Poll of polls - pollofpolls.eu is a polling data project based in Vienna, Austria.