The first round of the French Presidential Election was a good day for the polling institutes. The final polls were highly accurate in predicting the final result. On average, the final polls missed each candidate's result by just 0.6 percentage points. That’s incredibly close. Moreover, they were right in predicting the ranking of the candidates and therefore who would proceed to the second round of voting on the 7th of May. The run-off in France is going to take place this Sunday and according to the polls, if they are as accurate again, show a clear state of the race. Macron has a safe lead of 20 percentage points over Le Pen. No polling error in the modern polling history has been big enough to set this off. There has been some headlines in the media of a "surge in the polls" for Le Pen, but that’s not really defendable once you look at the aggregate in our pollofpolls.eu graph for France. Rather, Macron experienced a small bump in the days around the first round of voting and is now back at the 60 to 40 average, which he had over most of the time during the campaign in 2017. Another trend is not yet visible. However, the TV debate between the two candidates is taking place this week and it is likely that we will see some movement in the polls afterwards, as we have seen this happening after the public debates during the campaign for the first round.
Most interestingly is going to be how the voters of left-wing candidate Mélonchon, who made 4th place in the election, are going to decide, since he himself has so far not called for his supporters to vote for Macron, as most of the other candidates, among them Fillon, have done.
In the meantime, Le Pen has announced her plan to make Dupon-Aignan the Prime Minister of France, if she won the Presidential Election. Dupon-Aignan gained 4.7% in the first round of voting with his EU-sceptic program. This is the first time ever that the far-right Front Nationale managed or agreed to enter into a partnership with another party.
If this is going to strengthen Le Pen's position remains to be seen. For now, the poll of polls is clear with a safe lead for Macron, but we are going to follow the polls closely over the next days to look out for any signs of a trend in the data.