France

#MacronPresident ‒ French presidential and legislative elections were held in 2017. Next: 2022

The French Presidential Election 2017 completely changed the political landscape of France. And so did the legislative election one month later. The former major parties, the conservative Republicans, and the left Socialist Party were not even represented in the run-off of the presidential election and saw their support also decrease in the election for the National Assembly compared to the election in 2012. In France, since 2002 the presidential and the legislative election are held within one month to avoid the so-called cohabitation - a situation where the president does not have a majority of his own party in the National Assembly. The voting method in France for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system at the constituencies level with 577 seats up for election. In many constituencies, no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting and hence the run-off took place on the 18th of June 2017. The next elections are going to take place in 2022.

The polls for presidential election in France since 2012 until today

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
18. Oct '17
Ifop
28 % 21.5 % 18 % 15 % 7 % 5 % 1908
± 2 %
21. Apr '17
Odoxa
24.5 % 23 % 19 % 19 % 7.5 % 4.5 % 953
± 2.7 %
21. Apr '17
Ifop-Fiducial
24.5 % 22.5 % 19.5 % 18.5 % 7 % 4 % 2823
± 1.6 %
20. Apr '17
Harris
24.5 % 21 % 20 % 19 % 7.5 % 4 % 962
± 2.7 %
20. Apr '17
Ifop-Fiducial
24 % 22.5 % 19.5 % 18.5 % 7 % 4 % 2810
± 1.6 %
20. Apr '17
Elabe
24 % 21.5 % 20 % 19.5 % 7 % 4 % 1445
± 2.2 %
20. Apr '17
Odoxa
25 % 22 % 19.5 % 19.5 % 6 % 4 % 1433
± 2.2 %
20. Apr '17
Ipsos
24 % 22 % 19 % 19 % 7.5 % 4 % 1401
± 2.2 %

Polls for the previous legislative elections in France 2017

Previous election results for the legislative elections in France

Date
Election
11. Jun '17
Legislative election 2017 1st round
32.32 % 21.57 % 13.2 % 11.02 % 7.44 % 4.3 %
Date
Election
10. Jun '12
Legislative election 2012
29.4 % 27.1 % 13.6 % 6.9 % 5.5 % 0.6 %
Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
08. Jun '17
Ipsos
31.5 % 22 % 17 % 11.5 % 8 % 3 % 1112
-
08. Jun '17
Harris
30 % 19 % 17 % 12 % 7 % 3 % 931
-
08. Jun '17
OpinionWay
30 % 21 % 18 % 12 % 7 % 3 % 3080
-
08. Jun '17
Ifop-Fiducial
30 % 20 % 18 % 11 % 8 % 3.5 % 1003
-
08. Jun '17
Elabe
29 % 23 % 17 % 11 % 9 % 3 % 1918
-
05. Jun '17
BVA
30 % 20 % 18 % 12.5 % 8 % 3 % 4772
-
04. Jun '17
Ipsos
29.5 % 23 % 17 % 12.5 % 8.5 % 2.5 % 1126
-
01. Jun '17
Harris
31 % 18 % 18 % 11 % 8 % 3 % 1002
-

Presidential Election 2017: First round of Presidential Election sent Macron vs. Le Pen in run-off, Macron won with large margin.

The first round French presidential election was held on 23rd of April 2017. Since no candidate received more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, the second round of voting, the run-off, is taking place on 7th of May. Only since the 18th of March the official and eligible candidates are public. This year there were 11 candidates up for election, but only the first and second of the first round of voting have the chance to become elected president of the French republic in the run-off. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen had a safe lead over the previous 6 months in the polls for the first round of voting, but with Emmanuel Macron, the former Minister of Economy runs as independent candidate, the race became closer and in the end Macron won the most votes in the first run.

Date
Election
07. May '17
Presidential Election run-off 2017
66.1 % 33.9 %

Date
Election
23. Apr '17
French Presidential Election 2017
24.01 % 21.3 % 20.01 % 19.58 % 6.36 % 4.7 %

Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron

This section shows the polls for the second round of voting. Traditionally the voters of all other candidates tend to gather behind the more moderate candidate compared to the Front National candidate. The polls were more or less stable about a 60 to 40 lead for Macron over most of the time. However, he experienced a 4-percentage points "bump" in the last days before the first round of voting, which then declined back to 60%. The final days before the election after the TV debate between the two candidates showed again an upwards trend for Macron. In the end Macron outperformed his polls by 3 percentage points and one 66% to 34% percent against Marine Le Pen, becoming the first independent candidate with now major party backing him.

The most recent polls for the run-off of the presidential election 2017

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 N
MoE
05. May '17
Harris
62 % 38 % 2270
-
05. May '17
Ifop-Fiducial
63 % 37 % 1861
-
05. May '17
Ipsos
63 % 37 % 5331
-
04. May '17
Ifop-Fiducial
61 % 39 % 1400
-
04. May '17
Elabe
62 % 38 % 1050
-
04. May '17
OpinionWay
62 % 38 % 2264
-
04. May '17
Ipsos
61.5 % 38.5 % 2632
-
04. May '17
Odoxa
62 % 38 % 998
-

The final polls and trends for the first round of the presidential election 2017

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
18. Oct '17
Ifop
28 % 21.5 % 18 % 15 % 7 % 5 % 1908
± 2 %
21. Apr '17
Odoxa
24.5 % 23 % 19 % 19 % 7.5 % 4.5 % 953
± 2.7 %
21. Apr '17
Ifop-Fiducial
24.5 % 22.5 % 19.5 % 18.5 % 7 % 4 % 2823
± 1.6 %
20. Apr '17
Harris
24.5 % 21 % 20 % 19 % 7.5 % 4 % 962
± 2.7 %
20. Apr '17
Ifop-Fiducial
24 % 22.5 % 19.5 % 18.5 % 7 % 4 % 2810
± 1.6 %
20. Apr '17
Elabe
24 % 21.5 % 20 % 19.5 % 7 % 4 % 1445
± 2.2 %
20. Apr '17
Odoxa
25 % 22 % 19.5 % 19.5 % 6 % 4 % 1433
± 2.2 %
20. Apr '17
Ipsos
24 % 22 % 19 % 19 % 7.5 % 4 % 1401
± 2.2 %

Previous election results in France

Date
Election
06. May '12
Run-off 2012
52 % 48 %
Date
Election
22. Apr '12
French Presidential Election 2012
28.63 % 27.18 % 17.9 % 11.11 % 9.13 % 2.31 %

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