France

#MacronPresident ‒ but after the election is before the election. French legislative elections are held on 11th and 18th of June 2017.

The French Presidential Election 2017 completely changed the political landscape of France. And so did the legislative election one month later. The former major parties, the conservative Republicans and the left Socialist Party, were not even represented in the run-off of the presidential election and saw their support also decrease in the election for the National Assembly compared to the election in 2012. In France since 2002 the presidential and the legislative election are held within one month to avoid the so-called cohabitation - a situation where the president does not have a majority of his own party in the National Assembly. The voting method in France for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system on the constituencies level with 577 seats up for election. In many constituencies no candidate won a majority in the first round of voting and hence the run-off took place on the 18th of June 2017.

Previous election results

Date Election
11. Jun Legislative election 2017 1st round 32.32 % 21.57 % 13.2 % 11.02 % 7.44 % 4.3 %
Date Election
10. Jun Legislative election 2012 29.4 % 27.1 % 13.6 % 6.9 % 5.5 % 0.6 %

The most recent polls for the legislative election 2017

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2 3 4 5 6
08. Jun Ipsos 1112 - 31.5 % 22 % 17 % 11.5 % 8 % 3 %
08. Jun Harris 931 - 30 % 19 % 17 % 12 % 7 % 3 %
08. Jun OpinionWay 3080 - 30 % 21 % 18 % 12 % 7 % 3 %
08. Jun Ifop-Fiducial 1003 - 30 % 20 % 18 % 11 % 8 % 3.5 %
08. Jun Elabe 1918 - 29 % 23 % 17 % 11 % 9 % 3 %
05. Jun BVA 4772 - 30 % 20 % 18 % 12.5 % 8 % 3 %
04. Jun Ipsos 1126 - 29.5 % 23 % 17 % 12.5 % 8.5 % 2.5 %
01. Jun Harris 1002 - 31 % 18 % 18 % 11 % 8 % 3 %
01. Jun OpinionWay 1940 - 29 % 20 % 18 % 13 % 9 % 3 %
30. May Ipsos 8778 - 31 % 22 % 18 % 11.5 % 8.5 % 3 %
28. May Ipsos 1127 - 29.5 % 22 % 18 % 11.5 % 9 % 3 %
28. May Kantar Sofres 2022 - 31 % 18 % 17 % 12 % 8 % 3.5 %
26. May Harris 905 - 31 % 19 % 18 % 14 % 7 % 3 %
24. May Elabe 1011 - 33 % 20 % 19 % 12 % 6.5 % 2.5 %
24. May OpinionWay 2103 - 28 % 20 % 19 % 15 % 10 % 2 %
19. May Ifop-Fiducial 950 - 31 % 19 % 18 % 15 % 7 % 2.5 %
18. May Harris 940 - 32 % 19 % 18 % 16 % 6 % 3 %
18. May OpinionWay 1997 - 27 % 20 % 20 % 14 % 11 % 2 %
17. May Harris 4598 - 32 % 19 % 19 % 15 % 6 % 3 %
11. May Harris 941 - 29 % 20 % 20 % 14 % 7 % 3 %

Presidential Election 2017: First round of Presidential Election sent Macron vs. Le Pen in run-off, Macron won with large margin.

The first round French presidential election was held on 23rd of April 2017. Since no candidate received more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, the second round of voting, the run-off, is taking place on 7th of May. Only since the 18th of March the official and eligible candidates are public. This year there were 11 candidates up for election, but only the first and second of the first round of voting have the chance to become elected president of the French republic in the run-off. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen had a safe lead over the previous 6 months in the polls for the first round of voting, but with Emmanuel Macron, the former Minister of Economy runs as independent candidate, the race became closer and in the end Macron won the most votes in the first run.

Date Election
07. May Presidential Election run-off 2017 66.1 % 33.9 %
Date Election
23. Apr French Presidential Election 2017 24.01 % 21.3 % 20.01 % 19.58 % 6.36 % 4.7 %

The final polls and trends for the first round of the Presidential election 2017

Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron

This section shows the polls for the second round of voting. Traditionally the voters of all other candidates tend to gather behind the more moderate candidate compared to the Front National candidate. The polls were more or less stable about a 60 to 40 lead for Macron over most of the time. However, he experienced a 4-percentage points "bump" in the last days before the first round of voting, which then declined back to 60%. The final days before the election after the TV debate between the two candidates showed again an upwards trend for Macron. In the end Macron outperformed his polls by 3 percentage points and one 66% to 34% percent against Marine Le Pen, becoming the first independent candidate with now major party backing him.

The most recent polls for the run-off of the Presidential election 2017

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2
05. May Harris 2270 - 62 % 38 %
05. May Ifop-Fiducial 1861 - 63 % 37 %
05. May Ipsos 5331 - 63 % 37 %
04. May Ifop-Fiducial 1400 - 61 % 39 %
04. May Elabe 1050 - 62 % 38 %
04. May OpinionWay 2264 - 62 % 38 %
04. May Ipsos 2632 - 61.5 % 38.5 %
04. May Odoxa 998 - 62 % 38 %
03. May Ifop-Fiducial 1405 - 60 % 40 %
03. May OpinionWay 2264 - 61 % 39 %
02. May Elabe 3817 - 59 % 41 %
02. May Ifop-Fiducial 1388 - 59.5 % 40.5 %
02. May BVA 1435 - 60 % 40 %
02. May OpinionWay 1936 - 60 % 40 %
01. May Ifop-Fiducial 1385 - 59 % 41 %
01. May OpinionWay 1764 - 60 % 40 %
01. May Ipsos 13742 - 59 % 41 %
30. Apr OpinionWay 1488 - 61 % 39 %
30. Apr Kantar Sofres 1539 - 59 % 41 %
28. Apr BVA 1438 - 59 % 41 %

Previous election results

Date Election
06. May Run-off 2012 52 % 48 %
Date Election
22. Apr French Presidential Election 2012 28.63 % 27.18 % 17.9 % 11.11 % 9.13 % 2.31 %

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