United Kingdom

UK General Election one year after the BREXIT referendum

The prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May surprised the public with the announcement of holding General Election on the 8th of June. She had repeatedly assured she was against early elections. One motivation was that she wanted to strengthen her position and hoped to gain bargaining power in the complicated BREXIT talks with the EU-27 ahead, as polling data for her Conservative Party looked good in April. The Labour Party under leadership of Jeremy Corbyn had been falling in the polls for several year years but since the announcement of the early election recovered significantly. The Lib Dems didn't show strong signs of recovery and the UKIP was underperforming the party's polling numbers compared to previous years and the polling numbers were decreasing even further. The voting method in the United Kingdom for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system on the constituencies level. Therefore, the percentage presented in the poll of polls is just an approximation. The strategy by Theresa May backfired and in the end her party even lost the majority after all with a so-called hung parliament.

Previous election results

Date Election
08. Jun General Election 2017 43.5 % 41 % 7.6 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.7 %
Date Election
07. May General Election 2015 37.8 % 31.2 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 4.9 % 3.8 %

The most recent polls for the upcoming elections

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2 3 4 5 6
18. Aug Opinium 1256 - 43 % 40 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 2 %
11. Aug BMG/The Independent 1512 - 42 % 39 % 7 % 6 % 3 % 2 %
01. Aug YouGov/The Times 1665 - 44 % 41 % 7 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
19. Jul YouGov/The Times 1593 - 43 % 41 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
18. Jul Ipsos MORI 1071 - 42 % 41 % 9 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
16. Jul ICM/The Guardian 2046 - 43 % 42 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
15. Jul Survation/Mail on Sunday 1024 - 42 % 39 % 8 % 6 % 4 % 1 %
14. Jul Opinium 2013 - 43 % 41 % 5 % 5 % 3 % 2 %
11. Jul YouGov/The Times 1700 - 45 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 2 % 1 %
06. Jul YouGov/The Times 1648 - 46 % 38 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 1 %
03. Jul ICM/The Guardian 2044 - 43 % 41 % 7 % 3 % 3 % -
30. Jun Survation 1017 - 41 % 40 % 7 % 2 % 2 % 2 %
29. Jun Opinium/Observer 2010 - 45 % 39 % 5 % 5 % 3 % 2 %
21. Jun Panelbase 5481 - 46 % 41 % 6 % 3 % 2 % 1 %
17. Jun Survation/Good Morning Britain 1005 - 44 % 41 % 6 % 3 % 2 % 1 %
10. Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1036 - 45 % 39 % 7 % 3 % 3 % -
07. Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1291 - 44 % 36 % 7 % 5 % 4 % 2 %
07. Jun BMG/The Herald 1199 - 46 % 33 % 8 % 5 % 4 % 3 %
07. Jun Survation 2798 - 41 % 40 % 8 % 4 % 2 % 2 %
07. Jun ICM/The Guardian 1532 - 46 % 34 % 7 % 5 % 5 % 2 %

About

pollofpolls.eu is a private initiative by three data nerds, who want to offer aggregated polling data for upcoming elections in Europe. Slick design, up to date and comprehensive for anyone looking for the most recent polling numbers and their aggregation. We are not fivethirtyeight yet, but everyone must start at the bottom. We are based in Vienna, Austria, in the middle of the EU with its many difficulties and political disputes going on, and by tracking the political polls we try to give you one option to keep pace with the public mood. We are very aware that polls are far from showing the actual full picture, and we therefore see them rather as a very good compass, especially when aggregated. Last but not least, we invest our free time and apologize for possibly occurring bugs or errors.

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Disclosure: PollOfPolls - pollofpolls.eu is a polling data project based in Vienna, Austria.