United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

UK General Election one year after the BREXIT referendum

The prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May surprised the public with the announcement of holding General Election on the 8th of June. She had repeatedly assured she was against early elections. One motivation was that she wanted to strengthen her position and hoped to gain bargaining power in the complicated BREXIT talks with the EU-27 ahead, as polling data for her Conservative Party looked good in April. The Labour Party under leadership of Jeremy Corbyn had been falling in the polls for several year years but since the announcement of the early election recovered significantly. The Lib Dems didn't show strong signs of recovery and the UKIP was underperforming the party's polling numbers compared to previous years and the polling numbers were decreasing even further. The voting method in the United Kingdom for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system at the constituencies level. Therefore, the percentage presented in the poll of polls is just an approximation. The strategy by Theresa May backfired and in the end, her party even lost the majority after all with a so-called hung parliament.

Poll of national polls for the UK

 
Conservative and Unionist Party
Candidate: Theresa May
Ideology: Conservativ
EP Affiliation: ECR
Labour Party
Candidate: Jeremy Corbyn
Ideology: Sozial democracy
EP Affiliation: S&D
Liberal Democrats
Candidate: Vince Cable
Ideology: Liberalism
EP Affiliation: ALDE
UK Independence Party
Candidate: Gerard Batten
Ideology: Nationalism-Anti-EU
EP Affiliation: EFDD
Scottish National Party
Candidate: Nicola Sturgeon
Ideology: Regionalism, Centre-left
EP Affiliation: Greens/EFA
The Green Party of England and Wales
Candidate: (England/Wales) Caroline Lucas & Jonathan Bartley
Ideology: Green
EP Affiliation: Greens/EFA

Previous election results

Date
Election
08. Jun '17
General Election 2017
43.5 % 41 % 7.6 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.7 %
Date
Election
07. May '15
General Election 2015
37.8 % 31.2 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 4.9 % 3.8 %

The most recent polls for the upcoming elections

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
14. Apr '18
Survation
40 % 40 % 9 % 3 % 3 % 1 % 2060
± 2.1 %
12. Apr '18
ComRes
41 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 2038
± 2.1 %
12. Apr '18
Opinium
40 % 40 % 7 % 5 % 4 % 2 % 2008
± 2.1 %
10. Apr '18
YouGov
40 % 40 % 9 % 4 % 4 % 2 % 1639
± 2.4 %
05. Apr '18
YouGov/The Times
42 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 % 1662
± 2.4 %
05. Apr '18
Number Cruncher Politics
43 % 38 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 3 % 1037
± 3 %
27. Mar '18
YouGov
43 % 39 % 8 % 3 % 3 % 2 % 1659
± 2.4 %
18. Mar '18
ICM Research/The Guardian
44 % 41 % 8 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 2013
± 2.2 %

Post-referendum polling on EU-membership

Brexit referendum result

Date
Election
23. Jun '16
Brexit referendum 2016
51.9 % 48.1 %

The most recent polls on a theoretical EU-membership-referendum

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 N
MoE
06. Apr '18
YouGov
44 % 41 % 1636
± 2.4 %
16. Mar '18
BMG Research
49 % 42 % 1815
± 2.3 %
08. Mar '18
ORB
49 % 44 % 2092
± 2.1 %
02. Mar '18
ComRes
46 % 43 % 1096
± 3.1 %
19. Jan '18
ICM
45 % 43 % 5075
± 1.4 %
11. Jan '18
ComRes
51 % 43 % 1049
± 3 %
10. Dec '17
ICM
46 % 43 % 2006
± 2.2 %
08. Dec '17
BMG Research
51 % 41 % 1509
± 2.5 %

 

*The Brexit Leave icon is by Jason Gray from the Noun Project


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