United Kingdom

UK General Election one year after the BREXIT referendum

The prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May surprised the public with the announcement of holding General Election on the 8th of June. She had repeatedly assured she was against early elections. One motivation was that she wanted to strengthen her position and hoped to gain bargaining power in the complicated BREXIT talks with the EU-27 ahead, as polling data for her Conservative Party looked good in April. The Labour Party under leadership of Jeremy Corbyn had been falling in the polls for several year years but since the announcement of the early election recovered significantly. The Lib Dems didn't show strong signs of recovery and the UKIP was underperforming the party's polling numbers compared to previous years and the polling numbers were decreasing even further. The voting method in the United Kingdom for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system at the constituencies level. Therefore, the percentage presented in the poll of polls is just an approximation. The strategy by Theresa May backfired and in the end, her party even lost the majority after all with a so-called hung parliament.

Previous election results

Date Election
08. Jun General Election 2017 43.5 % 41 % 7.6 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.7 %
Date Election
07. May General Election 2015 37.8 % 31.2 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 4.9 % 3.8 %

The most recent polls for the upcoming elections

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2 3 4 5 6
14. Jan ICM Research 2027 ± 2.1 % 41 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 3 %
12. Jan Opinium 2008 ± 2.1 % 40 % 40 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 %
08. Jan YouGov/The Times 1663 ± 2.4 % 41 % 40 % 9 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
20. Dec YouGov/The Times 1610 ± 2.4 % 42 % 40 % 7 % 5 % 4 % 1 %
14. Dec Opinium 2005 ± 2.2 % 41 % 39 % 7 % 6 % 3 % 2 %
14. Dec ICM Research 2004 ± 2.2 % 42 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 3 %
10. Dec ICM Research 2006 ± 2.2 % 42 % 40 % 8 % 5 % 3 % 2 %
10. Dec YouGov/The Times 1680 ± 2.4 % 42 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
08. Dec BMG Research 1509 ± 2.5 % 40 % 37 % 9 % 5 % 3 % 3 %
05. Dec YouGov 1638 ± 2.4 % 41 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
01. Dec Survation 1003 ± 3.1 % 45 % 37 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 %
01. Dec ICM Research 2050 ± 2.1 % 41 % 40 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 3 %
28. Nov Ipsos MORI 1003 ± 3 % 39 % 37 % 9 % 5 % 4 % 4 %
26. Nov ICM Research 2029 ± 2.1 % 41 % 41 % 7 % 5 % 3 % 3 %
23. Nov YouGov / The Times 1644 ± 2.4 % 41 % 39 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 3 %
20. Nov Kantar Public 2437 ± 2 % 42 % 38 % 9 % 5 % 3 % 2 %
20. Nov YouGov 1677 ± 2.4 % 43 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
16. Nov Opinium 1236 ± 2.8 % 42 % 40 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 2 %
12. Nov ICM Research 2010 ± 2.2 % 41 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
08. Nov YouGov/The Times 2012 ± 2.2 % 43 % 40 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 2 %

Post-referendum polling on EU-membership

Brexit referendum result

Date Election
23. Jun Brexit referendum 2016 51.9 % 48.1 %

The most recent polls on a theoretical EU-membership-referendum

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2
11. Jan ComRes 1049 - 51 % 43 %
10. Dec ICM 2006 - 46 % 43 %
08. Dec BMG Research 1509 - 51 % 41 %
01. Dec Survation 1003 - 49 % 46 %
17. Nov BMG Research 1509 - 45 % 45 %
24. Oct YouGov 1648 - 44 % 40 %
20. Oct Opinium 1005 - 46 % 45 %
20. Oct BMG Research 1506 - 47 % 44 %
05. Oct Survation 2047 - 49 % 45 %
23. Sep Survation 1174 - 47 % 46 %
22. Sep Opinium 2004 - 45 % 44 %
20. Sep Survation 1614 - 47 % 47 %
15. Sep BMG Research 1447 - 47 % 43 %
15. Sep Opinium 2009 - 45 % 45 %
18. Aug Opinium 2006 - 47 % 44 %
11. Aug BMG Research 1512 - 46 % 45 %
24. Jul YouGov 1609 - 46 % 43 %
15. Jul Survation 1024 - 48 % 47 %
14. Jul BMG Research 1518 - 46 % 45 %
30. Jun Survation 1017 - 52 % 44 %

 

*The Brexit Leave icon is by Jason Gray from the Noun Project


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pollofpolls.eu is a private initiative by three data nerds, who want to offer aggregated polling data for upcoming elections in Europe. Slick design, up to date and comprehensive for anyone looking for the most recent polling numbers and their aggregation. We are not fivethirtyeight yet, but everyone must start at the bottom. We are based in Vienna, Austria, in the middle of the EU with its many difficulties and political disputes going on, and by tracking the political polls we try to give you one option to keep pace with the public mood. We are very aware that polls are far from showing the actual full picture, and we, therefore, see them rather as a very good compass, especially when aggregated. Last but not least, we invest our free time and apologize for possibly occurring bugs or errors.

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