United Kingdom

UK General Election one year after the BREXIT referendum

The prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May surprised the public with the announcement of holding General Election on the 8th of June. She had repeatedly assured she was against early elections. One motivation was that she wanted to strengthen her position and hoped to gain bargaining power in the complicated BREXIT talks with the EU-27 ahead, as polling data for her Conservative Party looked good in April. The Labour Party under leadership of Jeremy Corbyn had been falling in the polls for several year years but since the announcement of the early election recovered significantly. The Lib Dems didn't show strong signs of recovery and the UKIP was underperforming the party's polling numbers compared to previous years and the polling numbers were decreasing even further. The voting method in the United Kingdom for the National Assembly is a winner takes all or first-past-the-post voting system on the constituencies level. Therefore, the percentage presented in the poll of polls is just an approximation. The strategy by Theresa May backfired and in the end her party even lost the majority after all with a so-called hung parliament.

Previous election results

Date Election
08. Jun General Election 2017 43.5 % 41 % 7.6 % 3.1 % 1.9 % 1.7 %
Date Election
07. May General Election 2015 37.8 % 31.2 % 12.9 % 8.1 % 4.9 % 3.8 %

The most recent polls for the upcoming elections

Date Polling Firm N MoE 1 2 3 4 5 6
19. Oct YouGov/The Times 1648 - 42 % 40 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
11. Oct YouGov/The Times 1680 - 42 % 39 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
08. Oct ICM/The Guardian 2052 - 41 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
06. Oct Opinium/The Observer 1225 - 42 % 40 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 2 %
05. Oct YouGov/The Times 1615 - 42 % 40 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
24. Sep YouGov/The Times 1716 - 43 % 39 % 7 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
24. Sep ICM Research 1968 - 42 % 40 % 8 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
22. Sep Survation/Mail on Sunday 1174 - 43 % 38 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
22. Sep Opinium 2004 - 42 % 40 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
18. Sep Ipsos MORI 1023 - 44 % 40 % 9 % 4 % 2 % 1 %
15. Sep Opinium/Observer 2009 - 41 % 41 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 3 %
13. Sep YouGov/The Times 1660 - 42 % 41 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 2 %
10. Sep ICM/The Guardian 2052 - 42 % 42 % 7 % 4 % 3 % 3 %
01. Sep Survation/The Mail on Sunday 1046 - 43 % 38 % 7 % 4 % 4 % -
31. Aug YouGov/The Times 1658 - 42 % 41 % 6 % 4 % 4 % 2 %
28. Aug ICM/The Guardian 1972 - 42 % 42 % 7 % 3 % 3 % 2 %
22. Aug YouGov/The Times 1664 - 42 % 41 % 8 % 4 % 4 % 1 %
18. Aug Opinium 1256 - 43 % 40 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 2 %
11. Aug BMG/The Independent 1512 - 42 % 39 % 7 % 6 % 3 % 2 %
01. Aug YouGov/The Times 1665 - 44 % 41 % 7 % 3 % 3 % 2 %

About

pollofpolls.eu is a private initiative by three data nerds, who want to offer aggregated polling data for upcoming elections in Europe. Slick design, up to date and comprehensive for anyone looking for the most recent polling numbers and their aggregation. We are not fivethirtyeight yet, but everyone must start at the bottom. We are based in Vienna, Austria, in the middle of the EU with its many difficulties and political disputes going on, and by tracking the political polls we try to give you one option to keep pace with the public mood. We are very aware that polls are far from showing the actual full picture, and we therefore see them rather as a very good compass, especially when aggregated. Last but not least, we invest our free time and apologize for possibly occurring bugs or errors.

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Disclosure: PollOfPolls - pollofpolls.eu is a polling data project based in Vienna, Austria.