The CSU is on track losing its absolute majority in Bavaria

In the state of Bavaria, the CSU has governed alone with an absolute majority since 1966 except for 2008–2013, when it was the leading party of a coalition government with the FDP. The new CSU leader Söder, the successor of Seehofer, has taken a harder line on immigration and tried to appeal to AfD voters during the campaign, but the polls showed a decreasing trend for the party. Will the CSU lose its absolute majority again? The upcoming election is scheduled for October 14, 2018.

Poll of Polls

Christlich-Soziale Union
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Leadership: Markus Söder
Ideology: Christian Democracy
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Alliance '90/The Greens
Leadership: Katharina Schulze &Ludwig Hartmann
Ideology: Green Politics
Freie Wähler
Free Voters
Leadership: Hubert Aiwanger
Ideology: Syncretic politics
Alternative für Deutschland
Alternative for Germany
Ideology: Right-wing populism
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Leadership: Natascha Kohnen
Ideology: Social Democracy
Freie Demokraten
Free Democratic Party
Leadership: Martin Hagen
Ideology: Liberalism

Previous election results

Date
Election
14. Oct '18
Landtagswahl 2018
37.2 % 17.5 % 11.6 % 10.2 % 9.7 % 5.1 %
Date
Election
15. Sep '13
Landtagswahl Bayern 2013
47.7 % 20.6 % 9 % 8.6 % 3.3 % 2.1 %

The most recent polls

Date
Polling Firm
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
MoE
11. Oct '18
FG Wahlen
34 % 19 % 12 % 10 % 10 % 5.5 % 1075
± 3 %
10. Oct '18
Civey
32.9 % 18.5 % 12.8 % 11 % 9.8 % 5.9 % 5063
± 2.5 %
08. Oct '18
INSA
33 % 18 % 14 % 11 % 10 % 5.5 % 1707
± 2.2 %
04. Oct '18
FG Wahlen
35 % 18 % 12 % 10 % 10 % 5.5 % 1122
± 2.8 %
02. Oct '18
Infratest dimap
33 % 18 % 11 % 11 % 10 % 6 % 1002
± 2.9 %
26. Sep '18
GMS
35 % 16 % 13 % 12 % 10 % 5 % 1004
± 3 %
25. Sep '18
INSA
34 % 17 % 14 % 11 % 10 % 6 % 1064
± 2.8 %
23. Sep '18
Civey
36 % 17.9 % 13.2 % 12 % 8.6 % 5 % 5061
± 1.3 %
19. Sep '18
FG Wahlen
35 % 18 % 13 % 11 % 10 % 5 % 1114
± 2.8 %
10. Sep '18
Infratest dimap
35 % 17 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 5 % 1000
± 3 %
10. Sep '18
GMS
36 % 16 % 14 % 12 % 7 % 6 % 1006
± 3 %
09. Sep '18
Civey
35.8 % 16.5 % 13.7 % 12.1 % 8.1 % 5.8 % 5046
± 2.5 %

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